Not an HVAC tech, but have looked into similar systems as I plan on relocating out of California (Oregon and Nevada are on my short list).
In areas like Michigan, a straight heat pump system is not likely to keep up on really cold days. So to fit your first question of "needs to do well in winter" Most HP systems are not what you'll want.
There are systems however that also incorporate a lower BTU gas furnace along side the heat pump, which will boost the system to work through the really cold days. It'll come down to Cost, package install area and size. And of course what your budget to run it will look like. You may be better off with a standard gas furnace system.
Over the last 3 months. Ive been digging in. If one is doing GeoThermal (Ground sourced from a pond, deep wells (150Ft - 200ft) or 10 ft down in the ground or somewhat lower, then Geothermal can and will do quite well in really cold climates, even in Alaska or Northern Canada. Air source are not as good, but technologies have really improved them to at least cold weather areas.
There are people all over the North East, Canada, and the Mid West northern territories that are getting good results, but it seems much really depends on quality of installation, a very well matched system and the newer models available are said to be good down to -22 F. Thats quite cold. Even if it did well down to 5-10 F, that would cover Most of the winter months except the coldest times, thus I'll be doing dual fuel as I do have LP, as there is no Natural available at the road.
Duct Sizing is key to all hvac working well, but moreso with Heat Pumps.
From what I have found, if I can use a quality HP to keep up down to say 10-15* F, that would cover well over 1/2 of the winter months.
LP isn't too bad, but it could go through the roof if the kommieala gets elected. On the Other hand, it could drop a dollar if OrangeMan Bad gets elected with in the 1st year, at which point the H.P. would only be used for A/C in the summer, but very efficient compared to a standard A/C system.
They've come a long ways, but air source pumps wont cover every area, but if it can run 50-75% cheaper than a standard A/C in the summer, and keep up down to 15*F in the winter for under 100 a month, then it is at least cutting costs.
Considering I don't have A/C now, though I do have a duct system, installing a new model Heat Pump maybe the smart buy.
My questions are more duct related atm. However, I do have some H.P. questions for anyone familiar with them in northern US/Canada.
Im no greenie by any means, but if I can save 400 a year on heating cost, and add A/C for basically the cost of a standard A/C unit plus 2 grand for the H.P. version, then it would be a good buy impo if only to reduce the utility costs.
I've considered actual GeoThermal, but I think I would need to up my service to 200A from its current 100A setup, that's around 8,000 alone. Air Source uses basically 1 additional 30A Breaker for the condenser, which I believe I have room for in my current box.
Would need a Pond at 8000, or a few wells at 3000-8000 a piece. Or to burry a few thousand feet of poly line 10ft deep around my tree filled yard. So that's at least 14,000 to 20,000 alone, before any Geo is even able to be installed. I can do the Air Source for 7-10 max for the unit and all needed things for the install, and a couple grand for install. as I'll be doing any duct work that is needed to keep that cost down. With the currently available 2000 feral federal tax rebate, that puts a H.P. at basically the same cost as a standard A/C, but it will run on average, up to 40% more efficient than the standard A/C unit so be less expensive to operate, but maybe more expensive to fix if it has issues.